Advanced analytics and signal engine for prediction market trading on Polymarket.
(🌟click! so your polymarket account will be boosted)
Built for:
- arbitrage detection
- market inefficiency analysis
- real-time trading signals
- spread monitoring
- execution optimization
- automated trading workflows
The system continuously tracks market movements, liquidity, volatility, and pricing inefficiencies to identify high-probability trading opportunities across prediction markets.
- Real-time arbitrage detection
- Smart trading signals
- Advanced analytics dashboard
- AI-assisted trade optimization
- Position and PnL tracking
- Risk management tools
- Telegram integration
- Automated execution support
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Explore the new prediction market platform by GMGN:
Future News is a prediction market platform focused on trading real-world events with wallet-connected execution and real-time market data.
Terminal 1 — dashboard
npm startTerminal 2 — paper bot
npm run demoEdit config/demo-bot.json (your live settings). Use config/demo-bot.example.json as a conservative starter template.
| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
config/demo-bot.json |
Active strategy + bankroll (what npm run demo loads) |
config/demo-bot.example.json |
Example / reset template (lower risk defaults) |
data/demo-bot/state.json |
Virtual balance, positions, trade history |
data/demo-bot/trades.log |
Text log of bot decisions |
Reset virtual account: delete data/demo-bot/state.json and restart npm run demo.
Set strategy.name in config/demo-bot.json and restart npm run demo.
All other strategy numbers are loaded automatically from config/strategies/<name>.json (e.g. btc_and_odds → btc-and-odds.json).
Override any single field in demo-bot.json if you want (preset + your value wins):
"strategy": {
"name": "btc_or_odds",
"betSizeUsdc": 15
}Trade only Up or only Down (tradeLeg applies to every strategy):
tradeLeg |
Effect |
|---|---|
"both" (default) |
Buy Up or Down when conditions pass |
"up" |
Only enter Up; Down signals → HOLD |
"down" |
Only enter Down; Up signals → HOLD |
"strategy": {
"name": "btc_and_odds",
"tradeLeg": "down"
}For btc_and_odds, Up needs BTC ≥ beat + $threshold and Up odds ≥ min; Down needs BTC ≤ beat − threshold and Down odds ≥ min.
Down not trading? Common causes:
- Old Up position still open — bot shows
HOLD (holding_position)andpos U:34. Restart after fix, or deletedata/demo-bot/state.json. Stale positions are auto-settled on start. - BTC not far enough below beat — e.g. Δ −$9 with Down 89% fails if
minBtcDeltaUsd: 15. Lower to10or set"btcSignOnly": true(only need BTC below beat, not $15). - Down odds > maxEntryOddsPct — e.g. Down 96% with max 88 →
odds_too_high. - Outside entry window —
minSecondsIntoWindow: 200= only last ~100s of the 5m window.
strategy.name |
Buys Up when… | Buys Down when… | Typical use |
|---|---|---|---|
btc_momentum (default) |
BTC ≥ beat + $threshold, or BTC above beat + Up odds ≥ min | BTC ≤ beat − threshold, or BTC below beat + Down odds ≥ min | Trend + aligned odds (respectBtcOnOddsFallback) |
odds_favorite |
Up is market favorite (≥ minFavoriteOddsPct) |
Down is favorite | Ignore BTC; follow Polymarket price |
btc_and_odds |
BTC ≥ +threshold and Up odds ≥ min | BTC ≤ −threshold and Down odds ≥ min | Stricter — both must agree |
btc_or_odds |
BTC ≥ +threshold or Up favorite | BTC ≤ −threshold or Down favorite | More entries than momentum |
contrarian |
Down cheap when Up very expensive | Up cheap when Down very expensive | Fade extremes (minContrarianFavoritePct, maxUnderdogOddsPct) |
btc_mean_revert |
BTC below beat by $threshold (fade Down) | BTC above beat by $threshold (fade Up) | Bet snap-back before close |
Preset JSON blocks (copy strategy into demo-bot.json):
config/strategies/odds-favorite.jsonconfig/strategies/btc-or-odds.jsonconfig/strategies/btc-and-odds.jsonconfig/strategies/contrarian.jsonconfig/strategies/btc-mean-revert.json
Extra fields by strategy
| Field | Used by |
|---|---|
side, respectBtcOnOddsFallback |
btc_momentum only |
minFavoriteOddsPct |
momentum fallback, odds_favorite, btc_and_odds, btc_or_odds |
minBtcDeltaUsd |
all BTC-based strategies |
minContrarianFavoritePct, maxUnderdogOddsPct |
contrarian only |
minEntryOddsPct |
optional floor on entry price (any strategy) |
This is the file the bot reads today:
{
"mode": "paper",
"startingBalanceUsdc": 1000,
"pollIntervalMs": 5000,
"stateFile": "data/demo-bot/state.json",
"logFile": "data/demo-bot/trades.log",
"dashboard": {
"enabled": true,
"label": "Demo Bot",
"address": "0x000000000000000000000000000000000000d30b",
"color": "#22c55e"
},
"strategy": {
"name": "btc_momentum",
"side": "follow_btc",
"betSizeUsdc": 25,
"maxBetsPerWindow": 1,
"minSecondsIntoWindow": 45,
"maxSecondsIntoWindow": 270,
"minBtcDeltaUsd": 20,
"minFavoriteOddsPct": 72,
"maxEntryOddsPct": 95,
"takeProfitOddsPct": 100,
"stopLossOddsPct": 0,
"respectBtcOnOddsFallback": true
}
}| Setting | Value | Effect |
|---|---|---|
side |
follow_btc |
Buy Up/Down from BTC vs price-to-beat; use odds only if BTC is flat |
minBtcDeltaUsd |
20 |
Need ≥ $20 above/below beat for a BTC signal |
minFavoriteOddsPct |
72 |
Odds fallback only if favorite is ≥ 72% (strong market agreement) |
maxEntryOddsPct |
95 |
Can enter up to 95¢ — late, high-confidence entries only |
takeProfitOddsPct |
100 |
Almost never take profit early (odds must hit 100%) |
stopLossOddsPct |
0 |
Almost never stop out early (only if odds ≤ 0%) |
maxBetsPerWindow |
1 |
One paper buy per 5m window |
betSizeUsdc |
25 |
$25 virtual per entry |
In practice: entries need a clear BTC move or very one-sided odds (72%+). After buying, the bot usually holds until window settlement ($1 / $0 per share), not scalping TP/SL. Good for testing “bet the favorite and ride to close.”
Idea: In each 5-minute window, if BTC is clearly above or below the window’s price to beat, buy the side that should win (Up or Down). Optionally exit early on odds (take profit / stop loss); otherwise hold until settlement.
This is for testing — not financial advice.
- Each window is 5 minutes.
- Price to beat = BTC at window open (Binance proxy; Polymarket uses Chainlink).
- At window end: Up pays $1/share if BTC ≥ beat; Down pays $1/share if BTC < beat.
- While the window is open, share prices move between ~0¢ and ~100¢ (shown as % on the dashboard).
Controlled by strategy.side:
| Value | Behavior |
|---|---|
follow_btc |
Prefer BTC vs beat; if unclear, use odds |
follow_odds |
Use whichever side has higher implied probability |
follow_btc rules
btcDelta = current BTC − price to beat- If
btcDelta ≥ minBtcDeltaUsd→ target Up - If
btcDelta ≤ −minBtcDeltaUsd→ target Down - Otherwise fall back to odds — only the side that matches BTC direction:
- BTC above beat → may buy Up if
upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct - BTC below beat → may buy Down if
downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPct - Will not buy Up on a negative delta just because Up is 60% (that was the old bug)
- BTC above beat → may buy Up if
Set respectBtcOnOddsFallback: false to use pure odds favorite again.
follow_odds rules
- Pick Up if
upPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPctand Up ≥ Down - Pick Down if
downPct ≥ minFavoriteOddsPctand Down ≥ Up - Otherwise no entry (
no_clear_signal)
The bot wakes every pollIntervalMs (default 5s):
flowchart TD
A[Poll live window] --> B{Less than 15s left?}
B -->|yes| HOLD1[HOLD: too close to end]
B -->|no| C{Open position?}
C -->|yes| D{Odds >= takeProfitOddsPct?}
D -->|yes| SELL1[SELL: take profit]
D -->|no| E{Odds <= stopLossOddsPct?}
E -->|yes| SELL2[SELL: stop loss]
E -->|no| HOLD2[HOLD: hold to settlement]
C -->|no| F{In entry time window?}
F -->|too early| HOLD3[HOLD: warmup]
F -->|too late| HOLD4[HOLD: past entry window]
F -->|ok| G{Max bets reached?}
G -->|yes| HOLD5[HOLD: max bets]
G -->|no| H{Clear signal?}
H -->|no| HOLD6[HOLD: no signal]
H -->|yes| I{Entry odds <= maxEntryOddsPct?}
I -->|no| HOLD7[HOLD: odds too high]
I -->|yes| BUY[BUY betSizeUsdc]
All must pass:
| Config | Your value | Code default if omitted | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
minSecondsIntoWindow |
45 | 45 | Wait after window open |
maxSecondsIntoWindow |
270 | 270 | No new entries in last ~30s of window |
maxBetsPerWindow |
1 | 1 | Max BUY count per window |
minBtcDeltaUsd |
20 | 20 | Min |BTC − beat| for BTC signal |
minFavoriteOddsPct |
72 | 52 | Min favorite % for odds fallback |
maxEntryOddsPct |
95 | 82 | Skip entry if side > this % (too expensive) |
betSizeUsdc |
25 | 25 | Virtual USDC per BUY |
| Config | Your value | Code default if omitted | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
takeProfitOddsPct |
100 | 92 | SELL when side odds ≥ this % |
stopLossOddsPct |
0 | 35 | SELL when side odds ≤ this % |
respectBtcOnOddsFallback |
true | true | In follow_btc, odds fallback only for the side matching BTC vs beat |
With your exit settings:
- Take profit at 100% → effectively disabled (odds rarely hit 100 before close).
- Stop loss at 0% → effectively disabled (only if that side goes to ~0¢).
So most positions settle at window end: winners paid $1/share, losers $0 (same as dashboard settlement PnL).
To enable early exits again, try e.g. takeProfitOddsPct: 92 and stopLossOddsPct: 35 (see demo-bot.example.json).
- BUY: spends
betSizeUsdcat current mid → shares added to virtual wallet. - SELL: sells all open shares on that leg at current mid.
- Settlement: on window change, open shares → $1 or $0 from resolved outcome.
| Field | Your value | Description |
|---|---|---|
mode |
paper |
Paper only (no live trading hook yet) |
startingBalanceUsdc |
1000 |
Starting cash when state.json is missing |
pollIntervalMs |
5000 |
Strategy check interval (ms) |
stateFile |
data/demo-bot/state.json |
Persisted wallet + trades |
logFile |
data/demo-bot/trades.log |
Human-readable log |
| Field | Your value | Description |
|---|---|---|
enabled |
true |
Inject Demo Bot into chart, trade log, history |
label |
Demo Bot |
Name in wallet list |
address |
0x…d30b |
Virtual wallet id (do not use a real wallet) |
color |
#22c55e |
Chart / UI accent (green) |
| Field | Your value | Description |
|---|---|---|
name |
btc_momentum |
Strategy id (only this one implemented) |
side |
follow_btc |
follow_btc or follow_odds |
betSizeUsdc |
25 |
Size per entry |
maxBetsPerWindow |
1 |
Entries per 5m window |
minSecondsIntoWindow |
45 |
Earliest entry (seconds from open) |
maxSecondsIntoWindow |
270 |
Latest entry |
minBtcDeltaUsd |
20 |
BTC signal threshold ($) |
minFavoriteOddsPct |
72 |
Odds fallback threshold (%) |
maxEntryOddsPct |
95 |
Max buy price (%) |
takeProfitOddsPct |
100 |
Take-profit threshold (%) |
stopLossOddsPct |
0 |
Stop-loss threshold (%) |
Example A — Entry on BTC move
- Beat $97,000 · BTC $97,025 → Δ +$25 → Up
- Up at 78% → passes
minFavoriteOddsPct(72), undermaxEntryOddsPct(95) - Paper BUY $25 Up.
Example B — Down entry (BTC below beat + strong Down odds)
- Beat $97,000 · BTC $96,970 → Δ −$30 → BTC signal Down (or Δ −$5 with Down 88% and
respectBtcOnOddsFallback) - Down 88% ≥ 72%, under
maxEntryOddsPct→ paper BUY Down.
Example C — No entry (wrong side for BTC)
- BTC $97,005 (slightly above beat) · Up 61% / Down 39% → will not buy Up on weak odds above beat unless Up ≥ 72%; will not buy Down while BTC is above beat.
Example D — Late favorite entry
- BTC flat but Up 88% → odds fallback → BUY Up at ~88¢
- Small upside to $1 if Up wins; large loss if reverses.
Example E — Hold to settlement (your TP/SL)
- Bought Down at 80%, odds move to 60% → no stop (
stopLossOddsPct: 0) - Window ends, BTC below beat → Down pays $1 → profit on trade log BUY row.
| Goal | Change in demo-bot.json |
|---|---|
| More entries | Lower minBtcDeltaUsd (e.g. 10), lower minFavoriteOddsPct (e.g. 55) |
| Fewer entries | Raise minBtcDeltaUsd, raise minFavoriteOddsPct to 80+ |
| Cheaper entries (more upside) | Lower maxEntryOddsPct (e.g. 75–82) |
| Scalp with TP/SL | takeProfitOddsPct: 92, stopLossOddsPct: 35 |
| Always ride to close | Keep takeProfitOddsPct: 100, stopLossOddsPct: 0 |
| Bigger positions | Raise betSizeUsdc |
| More entries per window | Raise maxBetsPerWindow |
When dashboard.enabled is true and npm run demo is running:
- Demo Bot in wallet list (virtual, green).
- Chart markers for paper buys/sells.
- Trade log with per-fill PnL.
- Sidebar cash / equity / session PnL (~8s refresh).
Restart npm start after API changes; hard-refresh the browser.
| Path | Role |
|---|---|
config/demo-bot.json |
Active config |
scripts/demo-bot.js |
CLI entry |
src/bot/demo-engine.js |
Poll loop, settlement |
src/bot/strategy.js |
btc_momentum rules |
src/bot/paper-wallet.js |
Virtual balance |
src/bot/demo-dashboard.js |
Dashboard trade feed |
src/bot/load-config.js |
JSON loader + defaults |
npm run demo
npm run demo -- --config config/demo-bot.example.json
npm start# Windows — custom config path
set DEMO_BOT_CONFIG=config\my-bot.json
npm run demoAdvanced analytics and signal engine for prediction market trading on Polymarket.
- Paper only — no real Polymarket orders.
- Binance BTC vs Chainlink settlement may differ slightly.
- One leg per window (Up or Down, not both).
- Does not copy trades from wallets you track — only public market data.